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We are running out of superlatives to describe the exceptional nature of Nvidia, its strategy and its execution. Let’s summarize the most important conclusions from yesterday’s earnings and conference call. We comment on the figures below. Let’s start by the business conclusions :
The AI opportunity is not just about hyperscalers. While the market worries focus on hyperscalers capex (particularly Meta), Nvidia broadened the focus by sizing half of its business opportunity to foundation model builders, like OpenAI, Anthropic, xAI , Mistral (and many others), emphasizing that all of them work on Nvidia chips. The percentage is certainly much lower now, but it is a powerful growth driver for the midterm. This is a major positive for the AI thematic, in particular for the hardware value chain on which we are focused.
Nvidia is much more than an AI investment barometer. The group’s strategic initiatives that we emphasized in the past are expanding the company’s business opportunity: NVlink chip ultra-connectivity systems revenue are soaring (Networking segment: +162% on Q3 2026), consistent with the adoption of reasoning models, the CUDA software ecosystem is driving accelerated growth. Sovereign data center demand is also strongly accelerating.
Revenue growth reaccelerates : while revenue growth came down from +69% in Q1 2025-26 to +56% in Q2 2025-26, it repentified with a +62% in Q3, astonishing considering the comparison base and the larger size of the company.
Large upside on 2026 : beyond Nvidia’s capacity to surprise on the upside on Q3 2025, indications about 2026 were relatively more important for Nvidia’s stock and the AI thematic. Nvidia points to upside to its guidance of $500Bn revenue from Q3 2025-26 to Q4 2026-27. The consensus is currently -18.4% below the $500Bn mark, leaving a massive potential upside ahead.
In short, there is upside to market expectations for Nvidia itself and on the AI thematic, as market fears do not translate at all into the medium-term outlook. This is also a big positive for the energy thematic, as this accelerated data center build trajectory will increase the powering challenge.
Head of Equity Research & Advisory
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