What struck us in the US intervention in Venezuela, beyond its impressive execution (see below) is that D. Trump immediately stated that US oil majors should more or less take control of Venezuela’s oil production (while the main reason for the operation is deemed to be Maduro’s support for drug trafficking).

While adding opportunities are never a negative for companies, we do not get overly excited by this prospect, as it remains highly uncertain (it depends heavily on the political evolution in Venezuela, would require significant investment, and would take time, if it were to materialize).  

However, Venezuela’s largest oil customer is China and it is clear to us that this operation, although it does not destabilize China directly (Venezuela accounts for only 4% of the country’s oil imports), represents a first step in the US increasing its stranglehold on China’s oil supply. As many analysts now turn their attention to Iran as a potential next target for US intervention (with protests against the regime appearing « well timed »), the US may have a powerful counterweight to China’s grip on rare earths.

In this endeavor, D. Trump is likely to favor increased control by US majors over global oil production. This would be positive for those companies, given that Trump’s policy stance can be both determined and decisive. We see the energy theme as the most attractive opportunity for 2026 (take a look at our AMC Active Energy) and view this development as an additional reason to invest in the sector.

Meeting surging power demand (driven by AI/data centers and the broader electrification push) has become one of the core macro issues of 2026. The U.S. Department of Energy (DoE) has just provided a very tangible response: $2.7Bn of uranium enrichment “task orders” over 10 years, split across three suppliers (Centrus Energy, General Matter, Orano Federal Services), aimed at rebuilding a domestic nuclear-fuel supply chain and reduce reliance on Russian uranium.

Two awards target HALEU, the critical fuel for advanced reactors and SMRs, while one award targets LEU, the conventional fuel used by today’s reactor fleet. The U.S. is moving from policy intent to concrete procurement, contributing to secure both the current fuel cycle (LEU) and the future SMR bottleneck (HALEU), a market historically dominated by Russia.

Our conviction in the nuclear revival is stronger than ever. Through the AMC Active Energy, we maintain a strong exposure to this theme through key beneficiaries such as Cameco (integrated across the entire nuclear value chain) and Oklo (one of the most advanced SMR provider in the U.S.).

After narratives of “Trump stopped every war in the world (he should win the Nobel Prize after all)“ and “Ukraine is likely to be next” of the end of last year, markets are starting 2026 with: 1) stalled talks on Ukraine, notably due to a reluctant Russia, 2) a massive encirclement maneuver from the Chinese army around Taiwan accompanied by Xi’s declaration about “unstoppable Chinese reunification”, 3) a spectacular US intervention in Venezuela, culminating with the arrest of Nicolas Maduro.

We looked into the operation in Venezuela, which is indeed spectacular in the quality of its execution. It relied on a combination of furtivity (F-22, F-35, drones) to maximize the element of surprise, electronic warfare (EA-18G Growler) to “blind” Venezuela’s air defence, excelent intelligence collection (involving satellites, drones, infiltration and real time monitoring) to develop the battle plan and a great deal of resources (>150 planes involved while France, the largest European military fleet has c. 150 combat-ready planes, to provide a basis for comparison). This operation is a show of force from the US military, as well as a signal to China (which envoys met Maduro hours before the US operation). Yesterday, US defence stocks rose (Aerovironment +16.1%, Northrop Grumman +4.4%, General Dynamics +3.5%, Lockheed Martin +2.9%) after this success.

We also note that Trump made several “offensive” statements after the operation, threatening Colombia’s left-wing President G. Petro, accusing him of encouraging drug trafficking, claiming that Greenland is “needed for (US) national security”, stating that Cuba is “ready to fall” and warning Iran not to kill protesters.

Suddenly, it becomes clearer that geopolitical tensions are on the rise (a view we have for some time) and that the confrontation between the US power (with its allies, despite their reservations) and a group of adversaries (China, Russia and Iran) is likely to intensify in the coming months.

European defence stocks, which had declined during negotiations on Ukraine in November-December 2025, experienced a brutal wake-up call yesterday (Rheinmetall +9.4%, Hensoldt +8.2%, Renk +8.0%, Saab +6.6%, BAE Systems +5.5%). European countries will not be able to afford reducing their defense efforts. We believe this move still has room to run. 

During our webinar early November, one of our key messages was that despite Google’s impressive technological progress with TPUs (its ASIC developed with Broadcom), we believed that NVIDIA would remain ahead technologically, and that Google’s success should not be overinterpreted.

Yesterday, NVIDIA hosted a keynote at the Customer Electronic Show, during which it discussed its next-generation GPU platform, Vera Rubin. Composed of 6 new chips leveraging the company’s edge across multiple dimensions (notably connectivity), Rubin is expected to deliver roughly a 3.5x performance improvements on peak workloads and to widen the technological gap again with competitors by a significant margin. Rubin is now in full production and will begin shipping to customers during H2 2026.